Wind Energy in China is geen grapje

Westerse betrokkenen zijn met totale stomheid geslagen.

Over 2 weken ben ik weer in China. Laatste keer dat ik China was in zomer 2006 stond er net iest meer dan 1500 MegaWatt aan wind energie in heel China, (ongeveer evenveel als in het kleine Nederland). Toen werd door de buitenlanders meesmuilend gelachen toen de Chinese officials zeiden dat ze dachten 30.000 MegaWatt windenergie in 2020 draaiend te hebben. Welnu, eind vorig jaar was er al 12.000 MegaWatt geinstalleerd, nu juni 2009 is dat al 15 GigaWatt en als ik over 2 weken in Beijing ben zullen ze bijna 16 GigaWatt draaiend hebben. Ergens in eind 2011 zullen ze de 30 GigaWatt bereiken, of als het erg tegenzit dan wordt het mischien lente 2012. Westerse betrokkenen zijn met totale stomheid geslagen.
Bijgaand een plaatje van de "Renewable Energy School" die ook bijna klaar is. Het nieuwe doel is 600 GigaWatt wind energie in 2050.

Introductie Klimaatverandering discussie.

Voor mensen die Klimaat discussie nog niet goed gevolgd hebben. Hier een super intressant artiekel: Klimaatverandering: legende of werkelijkheid? Over de duurste controverse in de geschiedenis van de wetenschap.

Het geef een perfect inzicht hoe bepaalde media en type onderzoek totaal kan ontsporen. Ook geeft het mij aan hoe Galileo Galilei (aarde draait om de zon) verketterd werd door zijn stelling die achteraf (nu nog steeds) toch nog steeds mensen denken te kunnen willen weerleggen.

Zeker voor goed beeld te krijgen wie wat zegt is het heel goed stuk.
Wat ik vooral belangrijk vind aan dit stuk, of je nu voor of tegen bent is dat we net als veel dingen in politiek veel geld aan het verspillen zijn aan mensen en middelen die gewoon niet begrijpen wat en hoe wetenschap wel en niet iets bewijst.

Kizito

West Antarctic ice comes and goes, rapidly

West Antarctic ice comes and goes, rapidly
Science Centric | 22 March 2009 17:40 GMT




Gevonden! Zie je wel! Dat smelten is hartsikke normaal zeggen Wetenscappers van Penn State university of Massachusetts. Valt wel mee met die Wilkins iceshelf collapse. Kijk!. Zo hoort het; stel je eens voor dat de controverse zou ztoppen!
Researchers today worry about the collapse of West Antarctic ice shelves and loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet, but little is known about the past movements of this ice. Now climatologists from Penn State and the University of Massachusetts have modelled the past 5 million years of the West Antarctic ice sheet and found the ice expanse changes rapidly and is most influenced by ocean temperatures near the continent.
'We found that the West Antarctic ice sheet varied a lot, collapsed and regrew multiple times over that period,' said David Pollard, senior scientist, Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences' Earth and Environmental Systems Institute. 'The ice sheets in our model changed in ways that agree well with the data collected by the ANDRILL project.'
Pollard and Robert M. DeConto, professor of climatology, U. Mass, report their findings in 19 March issue of Nature. The results of the first ANDRILL drill core near McMurdo Station, Antarctica, are reported in a companion paper in the same issue. The ANtarctic geological DRILLing project is a multinational collaboration to drill back in time into sediment to recover a history of palaeoenvironmental changes.
'We found, as expected, that the East Antarctic ice sheet is stable and did not change,' said Pollard.
The East Antarctic ice sheet does not slide into the sea and melt away because most of the bedrock below East Antarctic ice is above sea level. However, on the other side of the continent, to the Pacific side of the Transantarctic Mountain Range, much of the bedrock below the ice lies from several hundred to several thousand feet below sea level, leaving the West Antarctic ice vulnerable to melting.
'We found that the ocean's warming and melting the bottom of the floating ice shelves has been the dominant control on West Antarctic ice variations,' said Pollard.
When the floating ice shelves melt sufficiently, they no longer buttress the grounded ice upstream, which then flows faster and rapidly drains the massive interior ice. The grounding line, the junction between the floating ice shelf and upstream ice resting on bedrock, retreats converting more grounded ice to floating ice shelves. Eventually, nearly all of the ice sheet on the Pacific side of Antarctica can disappear as it has in the past.
The researchers' computer model needs past variations of snowfall, snow melt and ocean melting below the floating ice to be specified. These are not obtained from the General Circulation Models often used in climate reconstruction because running those models to create 5 million years of climate history would take years. Instead, the researchers related past variations of these quantities to records of deep sea oxygen isotope ratios that indicate temperature changes in the oceans.
'We assume this is all driven by global-scale climate variations including Northern Hemispheric glacial cycles, so we used the changes in the oxygen 18 record to deduce the Antarctic changes,' says Pollard. 'Our next step will be to test whether this record really represents sea temperatures around Antarctica.'
The researchers compared their model's output with the sediment core record from ANDRILL. In these cores, coarse pebbly glacial till represent the glacial periods, while intervals filled with the shells of tiny ocean-living diatoms represent the nonglacial periods. One way the ANDRILL researchers date the layers is using existing datable volcanic layers within the core.
Pollard and DeConto not only looked at the modelling of the overall West Antarctic ice sheet, they also looked at the nearest grid point in their model to the ANDRILL drilling location. They found that, for the most part, the data trend at that grid point matched the data obtained from the sediment core.
'Our modelling extends the reach of the drilling data to justify that the data represent the entire West Antarctic area and not just the spot where they drilled,' said Pollard.
Along with the rapid appearance and disappearance of the ice, the researchers noted that both in the ANDRILL record and the model results, during the early portion of the 5 million years, the periodicity of the glaciation and melting was about 40,000 years which matches the Northern Hemisphere's pattern of glaciation and glacier retreat. The basic driver is very likely the tilt of the Earth's axis which varies with the same period, according to Pollard. However, nearer to the present, the cycle time increased to about 100,000 years as expected, driven by Northern Hemispheric ice age cycles.
During past warm periods, the major collapses in the model take a few thousand years. This is also the expected time scale of future collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet if ocean temperatures warm sufficiently - longer than a few centuries but shorter than ten thousand years.
The researchers note that when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in the past were about 400 parts per million, in the early part of the ANDRILL record, West Antarctic ice sheet collapses were much more frequent.
'We are a little below 400 parts per million now and heading higher,' says Pollard. 'One of the next steps is to determine if human activity will make it warm enough to start the collapse.'

Source: Penn: Office of University Communications

Jamaica-Size Ice Shelf Breaks Free

PHOTOS: Jamaica-Size Ice Shelf Breaks Free Sinds een paar jaar vliegen er 2 satelieten over de polen om het ijs te monitoren. Sindsdien is elke schots nieuws. De noordpool en de zuidpool varieren tientallen procenten in zee ijs oppervlakte tussen zomer en winter. Einde zomer (nu dus) is op de zuidpool het seizoen voor de grootste ijsafbraak. Vroeger ging dat ongemerkt en nu zijn er dus satelieten. Ook met deze afbraak is de global ice sea area boven normaal vanwege de exceptionele ijs groei deze na-winter op de noordpool. Volgens sommigen is dit een "pretty significant event" . Ik ben zeker dat er evenzo gerenomeerde weteschappers zijn die gaan zeggen dat het geen ruk voorsteld. Ik ga even een kwartiertje op internet zoeken, als ik een vind post ik 'em ANIMATED PHOTO: Ice Shelf Collapses in Antarctica April 6, 2009—An "alarming rate" of melting in the Antarctic Peninsula has finally snapped the ice bridge that held the Wilkins Ice Shelf in place, experts say. The 25-mile-long (40-kilometer-long) ribbon of sea ice that secured the Jamaica-size ice shelf (which is just out of view in the above pictures) to Antarctica had been "hanging by a thread" since August 2008 (above, top, in November 2008 in a European Space Agency satellite image). On Saturday, April 4, the bridge broke at its weakest point (bottom)—at about 1,640 feet (500 meters) wide—and shattered into hundreds of small icebergs. The ice shelf, which is now exposed to the open ocean, is more vulnerable to breaking up, experts say. "We've been watching it all summer, waiting for it to go, and bang—now it's gone," David Vaughan, a glaciologist for the British Antarctic Survey, told National Geographic News. "It's the culmination of yet another ice shelf retreat that's been driven by [warming] climate," Vaughan said. The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 1950s, he said—"something that people should take note of." (Related: "Antarctica Heating Up, 'Ignored' Satellite Data Show".) The massive ice shelf had been stable for most of the past century until it began disintegrating in the 1990s. Vaughan and colleagues will take sediment cores from Wilkins' newly exposed seabeds to find out whether such dramatic breakups have occurred in the shelf's past. But previous research on another Antarctic ice shelf suggests that the giant ledges do not change much over the centuries. "I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that Wilkins is similar," Vaughan said. "If it has been there [unchanged for] 10,000 years, this is a pretty significant event." —Christine Dell'Amore Images courtesy European Space Agency

Global Sea Ice back to Normal

We zijn weer terug bij af. We hebben 30 jaar zee ijs gemeten en we zijn geschrokken van de eerste echte variatie die op trad. Er was wat minder ijs. De variatie is weer weg, het ijs is terug, en we zijn weer terug bij af. Zie de links.
Onder andere de universiteit van Illinois (Chicago) houdt het ijs wereld wijd bij.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

De onderzoekers die het verdwijnen van de noordpool in kaart willen brengen worden weg gesneeuwd en kapot gevroren terwijl het ijs razendsnel aangroeit. Lees het geweldige verhaal:

The 'Global Warming Three' are on thin ice


The only problem with a project to prove that Arctic ice is disappearing is the fact that it is actually getting thicker, says Christopher Booker.

Explorer Pen Hadow's Catlin Arctic Project has top-level backing.
What a wonderful parable of our time has been the expedition to the North Pole led by the explorer Pen Hadow. With two companions, he is measuring the thickness of the ice to show how fast it is “declining”. His expedition is one of a series of events designed to “raise awareness of the dangers of climate change” before December’s conference in Copenhagen, where the warmists hope to get a new treaty imposing much more drastic cuts on CO2 emissions.

Hadow’s Catlin Arctic Project has top-level backing from the likes of the BBC, the WWF (it could “make a lasting difference to policy-relevant science”) and Prince Charles (“for the sake of our children and grandchildren, I pray that we will heed the results of the Catlin Arctic Survey and I can only commend this remarkably important project”).

Pen Hadow in bid to measure polar ice capWith perfect timing, the setting out from Britain of the “Global Warming Three” last month was hampered by “an unusually heavy snowfall”. When they were airlifted to the start of their trek by a twin-engine Otter (one hopes a whole forest has been planted to offset its “carbon footprint”), they were startled to find how cold it was. The BBC dutifully reported how, in temperatures of minus 40 degrees, they were “battered by wind, bitten by frost and bruised by falls on the ice”.

Thanks to the ice constantly shifting, it was “disheartening”, reported Hadow, to find that “when you’ve slogged for a day”, you can wake up next morning to find you have “drifted back to where you started’’. Last week, down to their last scraps of food, they were only saved in the nick of time by the faithful Otter. They were disconcerted to see one of those polar bears, threatened with extinction by global warming, wandering around, doubtless eyeing them for its dinner.

But at least one of the intrepid trio was able to send a birthday message to his mum, via the BBC, and they were able to talk by telephone to “some of the world’s most influential climate change leaders”, including Development Secretary Douglas Alexander in front of 300 people at “a conference on world poverty”.

The idea is that the expedition should take regular radar fixes on the ice thickness, to be fed into a computer model in California run by Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, whose team, according to the BBC, “is well known for producing results that show much faster ice-loss than other modelling teams”. The professor predicts that summer ice could be completely gone as early as next year. It took the Watts Up With That? science blog to point out that there is little point in measuring ice thickness unless you do it several years running, and that, anyway, Arctic ice is being constantly monitored by US Army buoys. The latest reading given by a typical sensor shows that since last March the ice has thickened by “at least half a metre”.

“In most fields of science,” comments WUWT drily, “that is considered an 'increase’ rather than a 'decline’.”